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The polls are open for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which previously pulled off a surprise first-place finish and established a multi-party all-conservative coalition that collapsed within a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, PVV's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with the PVV leader, who triggered the fall of the previous government in June amid disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

At the end of a campaign focused on topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the largest party yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.